According to media sources, India’s real GDP is estimated to grow by 6.4 percent in the financial year 2025, and the growth is likely to range between 6.3 and 6.8 percent in the financial year 2026. This was projected in the Economic Survey presented by the Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman in both Houses of Parliament today.
The Economic Survey highlights that the fundamentals of the domestic economy remain robust, with calibrated fiscal consolidation and stable private consumption. It mentioned that the country has displayed steady economic growth supported by the agriculture and services sector. Rural demand is witnessing improvement on the back of record Kharif production and favourable agricultural conditions. The survey highlights that the manufacturing sector faced pressures due to weak global demand and domestic seasonal conditions. Private consumption remained stable, reflecting steady domestic demand. The survey mentioned that fiscal discipline and strong external balance supported by a services trade surplus and healthy remittance growth contributed to macroeconomic stability. The survey also stressed improving the country’s global competitiveness through grassroots-level structural reforms and deregulation to reinforce its medium-term growth potential.
The survey highlights that the country’s GDP at constant (2011-12) prices grew by 6.7 percent in Quarter one and 5.4 percent in Quarter two of the financial year of 2025. This implied a real GDP growth of 6 percent in the first half of the current fiscal. Agriculture growth remained steady in the first half of financial year 2025, with quarter two recording a growth rate of 3.5 percent. Kharif production, above-normal monsoons, and an adequate reservoir level supported agricultural growth. The industrial sector grew by six percent in the first half of the financial year 2025, and quarter one witnessed a strong growth of 8.3 percent. The services sector continues to perform well with 7.1 percent growth in the first half of the financial year 2025.
The survey highlights that the fiscal discipline has improved progressively. Retail headline inflation, as per the Consumer Price Index, has softened from 5.4 percent in the financial year 2024 to 4.9 percent in April to December 2024. Pressures in food prices have been driven by factors such as supply chain disruptions and vagaries in weather conditions. Food inflation is likely to soften in Quarter 4 of the financial year 2025 with the seasonal easing of vegetable prices and Kharif harvest arrivals. On the employment front, the survey stated that the unemployment rate for individuals aged 15 years and above has steadily declined from 6 percent in 2017-18 to 3.2 percent in 2023-24 as per the 2023-24 annual Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS) report.
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